Death of Master Hsing Yun; Chinese Maritime Vessel Severs Matsu Island's Undersea Cables; Philippines Central to Western Strategy
Week Ending February 24, 2023
Quite a few pieces on Taiwan in English language media this week. There was a fascinating article from the Swiss website swissinfo.ch, reporting on the growing numbers of foreign correspondents in Taipei as a result of Beijing’s decisions. I delighted in having the opportunity to describe the decision makers in Beijing as ‘strategic nincompoops.” There was a wonderful Chaguan column in the Economist by David Rennie which I missed last week. In it he writes about the death of Master Hsing Yun, discussing its symbolism for the
current shape of cross strait relations. Jessica Chen Weiss has an op-Ed in the Washington Post about US policy on Taiwan, calling for less symbolism which, for her, has a negative impact on US interests. In an interview the UK’s Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy gave to The Telegraph, his discussion of Taiwan was as noteworthy for what he didn’t say, as much as what he did say.
In the Media
The Guardian - “Taiwan visit by Chinese delegation spurs internal political tensions.”
Washington Post - “The U.S. should deter — not provoke — Beijing over Taiwan. Here’s how.”
Foreign Policy - “China Is Practising How to Sever Taiwan’s Internet”
The Telegraph - “David Lammy: ‘We need to normalise our relationship with Europe.’”
Al Jazeera - “Taiwan’s KMT hopes for elections boost after China trip”
SWI swissinfo.ch - “How to report on China from outside the country”
Think tank / Policy space
Missed Pieces
The Economist - “China is losing Taiwanese heart and minds”
In the Media
Helen Davidson in The Guardian, in an article entitled “Taiwan visit by Chinese delegation spurs internal political tensions,” reported on the Chinese government delegation’s visit to Taiwan this week, the first such visits since the start of the pandemic. The visitation came about thats to invitation from Taipei’s new mayor, Chiang Wan-an, of the KMT. Davidson quotes Lev Nachmann in her article, professor at NCCU in Taiwan, who said that these visits are seen as controversial by “green” (pro DPP) side of Taiwan politics because “there is worry these actions are at the risk of Taiwan’s safety and sovereignty,” whilst for the “blue” side (pro KMT), these trips are not seen are controversial, adding that “it’s possible to support cross-strait dialogue without supporting reunification.” Davidson here reports on Taiwan from the vantage point of its domestic politics, which nicely conveys its disputatious nature, especially over cross-strait issues. This type of reporting adds welcome colour to the English language reporting on Taiwan, by ignoring Taiwan’s society, or treating it simply as being at the confluence of two Great Powers.
In an Opinion post in the Washington Post, entitled “The U.S. should deter — not provoke — Beijing over Taiwan. Here’s how,” by Cornell University’s Jessica Chen Weiss, Taiwan was the topic of discussion, in the context of the US’ policy on Taiwan in deterring Beijing from invading. Weiss calls for the discussion around US policy on Taiwan to pull back from a sense that conflict with China is “inevitable,” which itself, she says, could lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy. She calls for the US to understand that Beijing’s ultimate goal is to win Taiwan “without fighting.” However, if Beijing feels that the US’ is seeking the permanent separation of Taiwan from the mainland, then, at the behest of “popular and elite demand in China for “decisive measures” to counter perceived moves toward Taiwan’s independence,” US policy could be backing Xi Jinping into a corner, causing him to launch an invasion, even if he wasn’t 100% sure he would win. To prevent journeying down this road, Weiss calls for US officials to send “clear and credible assurances that U.S. support for Taiwan is not aimed at ensuring the island’s permanent separation or formal independence,” and for the U.S. officials to “reiterate that the United States would accept any outcome that Beijing and Taipei reach peacefully and without coercion.” This would be inline with Washington’s ‘One China Policy,’ which is neutrality on Taiwan’s future political status, but with a stated interest that whatever that status is, that it is reached peacefully. To assist in building Taiwan up stronger, Weiss calls for the US to focus on strengthening “unofficial relations with Taiwan, particularly in the economic and cultural domains” and “forge ahead with allies and partners in building more resilient military defences.” Interestingly, she says that “efforts to reduce Beijing’s sense of urgency over Taiwan could help limit the degree of China-Russia alignment, strengthening the overall U.S. strategic position.” Which is something to mull over.
Elisabeth Braw in Foreign Policy reported on the disabling of two undersea cables linking Taiwan to the Matszu islands, done by a Chinese maritime vessel, in an article entitled “China Is Practising How to Sever Taiwan’s Internet.” This is good quality reporting on a deliberate strategy by the PRC to undermine Taiwan. Braw also makes reference to other “grey-zone” tactics of the PRC, including digging up Taiwan’s sand. Taiwan’s undersea cables were damaged 5 times in 2021, and 4 times in 2022. The regularity is staggering considering it’s no mystery where the world’s 380 undersea cables are, because they are detailed in maps to ensure they are not accidentally damaged by fishing vessels. Braw writes, Beijing damaging Taiwan's undersea cables could be “an exercise in preparation for a communications cutoff of Taiwan proper.”
Last Saturday, in a piece entitled “David Lammy: ‘We need to normalise our relationship with Europe,’” Shadow Foreign Secretary Daivd Lammy gave an interview with the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith, discussing the Labour Party’s policy positions on key UK foreign policy issues, including NATO, Brexit, and China. Judging by current polling, the Labour Party is a government in waiting, so it was interesting that when discussing China, Lammy brought up Xi Jinping having surrounded himself with “yes men on the Politburo,” remarking, “Is he going to be getting the right advice? [..] the aggression in the Taiwan Strait must make us very cautious.” On Taiwan, Lammy rejected sending arms to Taiwan, and is not considering a visit to the island, saying he doesn’t want to “inflame tensions.” Criticising UK government policy on China over the last few years, Lammy says there needs to be a “complete audit of our relationship with China.” Lammy’s comments on Taiwan are as noteworthy for what he didn’t say, as much as what he did say, remaining noncommittal in offering up how a Labour government policy would differ to the current Conservative governments. So far, how Taiwan will fit into a potential Labour governments China strategy remains to be seen. One hopes that they are thinking hard about this issue.
Al Jazeera featured a piece this week by Taipei based journalist Erin Hale entitled “Taiwan’s KMT hopes for elections boost after China trip.” The piece covers Taiwan domestic politics, KMT Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia’s recent visit to China, and the manoeuvrings of the KMT in positioning itself as the party which can better manage Taiwan’s relationship with both China and the US. Al Jazeera’s coverage of Taiwan is of consistently good quality, generally covering Taiwan from the vantage point of Taiwan and its domestic politics, which is a welcome addition to the English language media discourse on Taiwan.
SWI, or swissinfo.ch, published a fascinating article this week, called “How to report on China from outside the country.” The topic is China correspondents who are now working from Taipei. Whether that's because these journalists were denied accreditation to work in Beijing, or because the political situation has gotten so uncomfortable that they decided it was not safe to work from Beijing, Taipei has become the destination of choice for foreign correspondents covering China. The result is that the number of foreign correspondents working in Taiwan have shot up massively. Speaking to William Yang, president of the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents’ Club at a recent event, Yang said of foreign journalists in Taiwan, “a few years ago we had maybe five or six international journalists accredited, now there are at least ten times as many.” According to SWI, Taipei is now where the Swiss daily newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) has decided to base its “geopolitics correspondent.” Speaking to Patrick Zoll, former Asia Editor in Zurich, “Ten years ago NZZ would certainly have gone to Beijing, five years ago Hong Kong would have been our first choice, but now we opted for Taipei.” Zoll opened the newspaper’s bureau in Taipei a few months ago. From a strategic point of view, Beijing’s decision to hassle foreign journalists, and make it harder for them to get visas is such a clear case of strategic nincompoop behaviour. With so many more journalists living and working in Taiwan, they are contributing to the increasing coverage and visibility of Taiwan, surely not ideal from the perspective of Beijing.
Think tank / Policy space
The Economist had an interesting article this week on one of the geostrategic drivers of deepening US ties with the Philippines – the Philippines’ proximity to Taiwan. With the news that the Philippines and the US have signed a deal which will allow US to use four, as yet unspecified, military bases, two of the bases are expected to be those located in the northern province of Cagayan, which is less than 400km (250 miles) from the coast of Taiwan. The Economist writes “That makes them the closest possible launch-pad to the disputed island for American and allied forces, apart from one or two far-flung Japanese island bases, which would be harder to defend and supply.” This agreement comes hot on the heels of the Philippines president saying in the event of the cross-strait conflict “it's very hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not somehow get involved.” With Japan and the Philippines already deepening ties, and Mr Marcos announcing that a trilateral security pact with the US and Japan is under consideration, the Philippines looks well placed to become an important factor in increasing deterrence across the Taiwan strait.
Missed Pieces
There was a fantastic piece which came out last Thursday, February 16th in The Economist by David Rennie in his Chaguan column. Rennie’s columns are often intimate and thoughtful, yet at the same time, linking the particular to a larger strategic picture. This column embodies this especially. Entitled “China is losing Taiwanese heart and minds,” Rennie reports on PRC officials trekking to Dajue Temple （大覺寺）in Jiansu province to pay their respects to Master Hsing Yun, a Taiwanese monk who was well-known on both sides of the Strait. Born in China in 1927, he moved to Taiwan with the Nationalists in the 1940’s. Aside from his religious activities and charitable work, Master Hsing Yun was well known for his political activities, with long standing ties to the KMT. Known as “a political monk” in Taiwan, he is an outspoken advocate of “unification,” once saying to an audience at the World Buddhist Forum in 2009 that “both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one family. There are no Taiwanese in Taiwan and Taiwanese are all Chinese.” Yet this hadn't stopped him from telling the New York Times “We Buddhists uphold whoever is in charge. Buddhists don’t get involved in politics.”After Taiwan denied travel to 12 members of the Chinese delegation sent to attend Master Hsing Yun's funeral, the delegation headed to Dajue temple in Jiangsu province instead, accusing the DPP of “politicising” Hsing Yun’s death. Master Hsing Yun's message of unity seems not to have survived his death. With its increasingly bullying tactics, it looks as if Beijing has given up on winning Taiwanese hearts, Rennie notes. The prize now seems to be winning through fear. Speaking to a few people at Dajue Temple, Rennie finds a common view that, whilst sympathetic to the Tawianese, they believe the Taiwanese should just give in to China’s demands, because China is too big to resist. Rennie writes “It is a sobering thought, but China’s rulers might settle for a Taiwanese population with a similar mix of views, combining distrust of the Communist Party with a bleak calculation that it is too strong to resist. Hsing Yun and his ilk are passing away. Mr Xi’s China is increasingly quick to use threats to sway the island. From now on it seems that Taiwanese minds, not hearts, are the prize.”
這週的weekly roundup就到這邊結束。這週末也是228連假，讓我們一起來回顧與反思歷史，祝大家連假愉快
Really useful articles, would like to read more on this topic. Keep up the great work!