Bloomberg investors guide to the election; Economist, FT, Guardian, Nikkei Asia, and more, Taiwan elections
Week ending Jan. 10, 2024
Welcome to another edition of The World’s Taiwan, The Taiwan World! International media was really in the groove with its Taiwan coverage earlier in the week, now it's in overdrive! SO much quality Taiwan coverage. In 2005, following a New Left Review roundtable on Taiwan, Wang Chaohua wrote:
“The recent round-table in NLR, in which distinguished Taiwanese artists and intellectuals reflected critically on the current scene, is a hopeful sign that the rich debates within Taiwan may become more widely known abroad, where perceptions have tended to be shaped mainly by commentaries centred on the positions of the US and China, not the island itself”.
I don’t know about academia, but in mainstream international media, we really have seen the mainstreaming of debates from Taiwan, where perceptions for the most part have not been shaped by China and the US (apart from in the Economist’s coverage). If this continues after Jan. 13, this will be amazing for Taiwan.
Anyway, this is the final roundup before Saturday’s elections! A full list of the roundup is below, too many to mention in the introduction, so here are a few highlights I think are worth mentioning!
I enjoyed reading Bloomberg’s article — “A Stock Trader’s Guide to Navigating Taiwan’s Presidential Election” — which looks at the immediate geopolitical consequences (from the perspective of investors) of a DPP or KMT victory, and also what industries, including the energy and defence sector, would stand to benefit from a respective party victory. The article is available in front of the paywall on Taipei Times.
The Economist: Drum Tower podcast is in front of the paywall this week on Taiwan’s elections! But again, the China factor is the sole lens through which the listener is invited to understand Taiwan.
Of course, Katherin Hille’s amazing Financial Times article on Taiwanese history and identity “Becoming Taiwan”. Incisive quotes from learned Taiwanese experts deepen the portrait. There's a poignancy to it too. ↓
The Guardian editorial (Jan. 5) was so brilliant on Taiwan’s democracy, “Whatever the outcome, Taiwan’s election should be applauded” (highlights below), it also leans towards the DPP and praises President Tsai.
Chatham House - Ben Bland writes, “Ultimately, none of the presidential candidates has a clear-cut answer for how to sustain Taiwan’s democracy and self-government long term. They are all offering different ways to bide time and keep Beijing at bay” — Dmitri Alperovitch on X: “This is an answer in and of itself and the core foundation of the US policy for the last 50 years”.
Thanks for reading the Worlds Taiwan, The Taiwan World! See you on the other side!
Contents
In the media:
Elections
Financial Times - “Becoming Taiwan: in China’s shadow, an island asserts its identity”
The Guardian - “[Editorial]The Guardian view on Taiwan’s elections: applaud democracy in action”
Nikkei Asia - “Big shift in China policy unlikely whoever wins Taiwan election”
The Observer - “Taiwan braces for ‘big deal’ presidential election as China’s shadow looms”
Reuters - “Taiwan election poses early 2024 test of U.S. aim to steady China ties”
The Economist - “For China, Taiwan’s elections are a looming crisis”
The Economist - “America braces for Taiwan’s election—and vice versa”
The Economist - “Questions about China dominate Taiwanese elections, says Nathan Batto”
Business
Bloomberg - “A Stock Trader’s Guide to Navigating Taiwan’s Presidential Election”
Wall Street Journal - “China’s ‘Reunification’ Offer to Taiwan Is Sounding Less and Less Peaceful”
Nikkei Asia - “Market players shy away from taking stances on Taiwan election”
Nikkei Asia - “Taiwan's election will mark an economic crossroads”
Think Tank / Policy Space
Chatham House - “Taiwan elections offer no clear answers to China challenge”
Podcasts
Drum Tower by the Economist - “Taiwan goes to the polls”
Not covered in the roundup
Financial Times - “Taiwan prepares to vote in election overshadowed by tensions with Beijing”
The Economist - “Who is Lai Ching-te, the leader in Taiwan’s presidential race?”
The Economist - “Taiwan’s elections are about more than China”
Bloomberg - “Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan”
Bloomberg - “To Protect Election From China, Taiwan Disenfranchises Thousands of Voters”
Nikkei Asia - “Lai Ching-te, the miner's son who staunchly defends Taiwan's sovereignty”
Nikkei Asia - “Hou Yu-ih, Taiwan's 'law and order' poster child aims for top job”
Nikkei Asia - “Ko Wen-je, the maverick seeking to break Taiwan's two-party dominance”
Nikkei Asia - “Taiwan elections: 5 things to know about the stakes, stances and system”
Nikkei Asia - “Nikkei Film: Taiwan's youth prepare for possible attack”
Nikkei Asia - “Taiwan's young voters fret over material and existential issues”
CNN - “As election nears in Taiwan, many young voters say China isn’t their biggest concern”
NPR - “China's Influence on Taiwan's Politics and Taiwan's Influence on Chinese Pop Culture”
NPR - “There's tension between China and Taiwan but that's not the case with their music”
NPR - “Taiwan's long history of colonization has forged its distinct cuisine”
NPR - “How Taiwanese identity has evolved on the island in recent generations”
The Guardian - “Cognitive warfare and weather balloons: China accused of using ‘all means’ to influence Taiwan vote”
POLITICO - “How to watch Taiwan’s election like a pro”
In the media
Financial Times - “Becoming Taiwan: in China’s shadow, an island asserts its identity”
Brilliant article from Katherin Hille on Taiwanese history and identity. The photos accompanying the article are also amazing. The expert contributions from scholars are brilliant.
The article opens with the story of Wang Ya-june, 90, a young woman at the time who evacuated to Taiwan from China with her family in 1949:
“Little did she know that she was joining a centuries-long line of migrants, refugees and colonisers on these shores, or that she would spend the rest of her life here and become part of a nation quite distinct from the one the Chinese Communist party built on the other side of the Taiwan Strait”.
Hsieh Jolan, a professor of indigenous studies from the indigenous Siraya people tells Hille:
“Taiwan has never belonged to China… We have come to be on two different paths quite naturally. Even more, if we embrace our indigenous identity, we can’t possibly pursue unification with China”
“She and many other Taiwanese see their history as a succession of colonial regimes that has left multiple faultlines in the national identity”, Hille writes.
Dominic Meng-hsuan Yan tells Hille:
“Looking at it from today’s perspective, coming into Taiwan from China in the 1940s was coming into a foreign country… Taiwanese back then identified as Chinese in a cultural sense and as local Taiwanese, while seeing themselves as Japanese colonial subjects — a hybrid identity miles away from a Chinese national identity.”
Chen Ling-yang, a doctoral student in Taiwanese history “is optimistic that democracy and generational change are gradually narrowing the memory divide between Taiwan’s different groups of colonisers and colonised”, Hill says.
“What we are seeing is two nationalisms, the Taiwan one and the ROC one, gradually coming together… China’s inflexible course is only accelerating that.”
The Guardian - “[Editorial]The Guardian view on Taiwan’s elections: applaud democracy in action”
The Guardian editorial (Jan. 5) with a ringing endorsement of Taiwan’s democracy, and a glowing appraisal of President Tsai; and while it doesn’t explicitly endorse Lai Ching-te’s candidacy, Lai gets more than a little mention, while Hou and Ko are given short shrift.
On Taiwan’s democracy:
“Whatever the outcome, Taiwan’s election should be applauded. As authoritarianism advances across much of Asia, its vigorous debate and free and fair elections are a beacon for a better way of doing things”
On President Tsai:
She “steered Taiwan through the troubled waters of US-China relations deftly” and “Taiwan also became the first place in Asia to legalise gay marriage on her watch”.
Lai Ching-te gets a paragraph, discussing his policy and beliefs:
“Has worked hard to reposition himself and reassure the US that he will not upset the status quo” with an outline of his China policy.
Hou You-yi barely gets a mention:
“Tried to cut a deal [with third-party candidate Ko Wen-je] but ended up in a humiliating public spat instead”.
Ko Wen-je
“Initially attracted people disenchanted with the DPP… [but] has proved erratic and unimpressive”.
Nikkei Asia - “Big shift in China policy unlikely whoever wins Taiwan election”
Interesting commentary from John Fuh-sheng Hsieh.
Hsieh argues that though this election has been portrayed “as a momentous turning point for the island in relation to the possibility of conflict with China”, in truth, he says, “Taiwan's next president, whoever he is, is unlikely to make a hugely dramatic shift in cross-Strait ties due to continuing domestic and external constraints”.
Hsieh writes that according to a survey by local magazine Global Views Monthly, 42% of respondents held the view that Taiwan should make friendly gestures toward both the U.S. and China, while 19.8% said Taiwan should lean toward the U.S. but still maintain friendly relations with China. Only 14.4% felt that Taiwan should take a pro-U.S., anti-China stance.
In other words, though the national identity question is important and a very live issue, Taiwanese are pragmatic and “they often still see friendly relations with China as essential”.
The Observer - “Taiwan braces for ‘big deal’ presidential election as China’s shadow looms”
This is a great dispatch from the mountains of Hsinchu, where Helen Davidson and Chi Hui Lin speak to residents of Smangus, an indigenous village home to 200 Atayal people, on their views on the election.
For the villages, “the presidential election is about big picture themes, says Yarah Pihu, Smangus’s Presbyterian minister and a community leader. ‘We want a president with an international perspective and a sense of Taiwanese identity’”.
The article also discusses different hues of support for mainstream parties from various indigenous communities in Taiwan, for example, in Mialo County, with a diverse mix of ethnic groups, the county has never voted against the KMT.
Reuters - “Taiwan election poses early 2024 test of U.S. aim to steady China ties”
Interesting article on what the US thinks about which candidate best serves US interests.
“‘Administration officials' lips say they are neutral, but their body language, reflected in overall policy statements about China, say they support the DPP they know rather than the KMT they are unsure about’, said Douglas Paal”, former AIT director (2002-2006).
On the other hand, Kharis Templeman said there were genuine differences of opinion in Washington.
"A Hou presidency could help stabilize cross-Strait relations, lower the near-term threat level, and buy more time for Taiwan's defence reforms to be implemented”, Templeman said.
The Economist - “For China, Taiwan’s elections are a looming crisis”
David Rennie’s Chaguan column this week takes Taiwan’s elections on Jan. 13 as its subject, viewed from the perspective of the CCP.
The theme is Chinese insecurity, and its “unrealistic expectations that President Joe Biden and his administration would help to constrain a Lai presidency” (China thinks Taiwanese leaders are American pawns, mirror-imaging its own political system that politics is only ever about power).
China is in line for disappointment, Rennie says, even if the KMT wins:
“Familiarity has not bred respect. When KMT leaders visit the mainland and complain that aggressive Chinese policies make it hard to woo Taiwanese voters, CCP bosses hear the KMT whining about its own political incompetence. China is learning that elections have consequences. For Mr Xi’s party, that is always someone else’s fault”.
The Economist - “America braces for Taiwan’s election—and vice versa”
The Financial Times: the past is not past in Taiwan today; The Observer: Taiwan a diverse democracy in action; The Economist: “The year 2022 brought the war in Ukraine; 2023 the one in Gaza. Will 2024 add a crisis over Taiwan?”
The Economist - “Questions about China dominate Taiwanese elections, says Nathan Batto”
Rich and incisive commentary from Taiwan political expert, Nathan Batto.
Responding to those who observe that in Taiwanese politics “surprisingly little of the political discussion is actually about China” and who conclude, therefore, that Taiwanese voters have moved past questions about China and are more concerned with the day-to-day, Batto says this is misguided.
He says that “China is always at the heart of Taiwanese national elections”. However, “the considerations are always more complex than simply unification or independence”.
“The two parties are often caricatured by outsiders and each other: the DPP as radically pro-independence, and the KMT as radically pro-unification. A better description is that the DPP is against policies that might eventually lead towards unification and the KMT is against policies that might eventually lead towards formal independence”.
“In the end, the great majority of votes in this election will be determined by attitudes about China. But this will not be a referendum on unification or independence. Rather, national identity and judgments about the best way to maintain the status quo will be the most important considerations”.
Business
Bloomberg - “A Stock Trader’s Guide to Navigating Taiwan’s Presidential Election”
This article is an interesting insight into how international business is viewing the Taiwanese elections next week.
“The market has already priced in a base case scenario of a DPP win, but ‘a closer gap between DPP and Kuomintang may be seen as a slight positive’, as it reduces the risk of conflict with China, said Xiadong Bao, a fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.”
It highlights “areas investors should watch around the election” that include chips, energy, and tourism.
On chips:
“‘A best-case DPP administration will continue to secure Taiwan’s status as an “independent location to fabricate chips and assemble AI servers’, while a KMT victory may see firms attempting to diversify their supply chain away from the island, according to Dylan Patel, founder of the research group SemiAnalysis”.
Defence stocks:
It says that all three presidential candidates have pledged to bolster Taiwan’s defences, which “bodes well for the overall outlook of major defence stocks such as Taiwan’s leading fighter jet-maker Aerospace Industrial Development Corp”.
Defence industry:
It said that domestic shipbuilders “including CSBC Corp and Lungteh Shipbuilding Co, may also get a boost if the DPP wins, following the party’s push for domestically-produced submarines”.
This is a wire story free to read on the Taipei Times website.
Wall Street Journal - “China’s ‘Reunification’ Offer to Taiwan Is Sounding Less and Less Peaceful”
Lingling Wei in her China newsletter writes:
China no longer has any friends in Taiwan as Josh Chin and Joyu Wang reported last month.
China is running out of carrots: “With few carrots left to lure Taiwan back, Beijing has increasingly waved the stick”
Therefore, “Beijing has shown that the uneasy coexistence between China and Taiwan for more than seven decades is likely to get more unstable in the months and years to come”.
Nikkei Asia - “Taiwan's election will mark an economic crossroads”
Interesting op-ed from Alicia Garcia-Herrero on Taiwan’s political economy, investor confidence, and Taiwan’s diversification away from China.
She says, “For Taiwan, economics and politics cannot be easily separated”, and the question investors are asking, is how dependent is Taiwan on China?
“Foreign investors active on the island are becoming increasingly reluctant to take on Taiwan country risk… A question that investors ask themselves is how interlinked Taiwan's economy is with that of China, or more bluntly, how dependent it might be”
“Despite this diversification of Taiwanese trade away from China and toward the rest of Asia and the U.S., it is not clear how the island can further reduce China's share given Taipei's failure to conclude any significant bilateral trade agreements or join any new regional trade pacts, in part due to interference from Beijing”.
Nikkei Asia - “Market players shy away from taking stances on Taiwan election”
Some interesting takeaways from this article, including that:
“the politically sensitive nature of the poll means many [in the market] are cautious to present their views despite playing up its significance”
A DPP presidential victory and an opposition legislature victory is the “base case” scenario for the market according to a senior economist at Goldman Sachs.
From the article:
Economists for banks are remaining tight-lipped. Ning Zhang, senior China economist at UBS Investment Research said the election was "political” and it was "inconvenient" to comment on it.
Blackrock did not answer a question from Nikkei Asia at a Singapore briefing on Friday and skipped the online written query about the elections.
However, “Sam Konrad, co-investment manager of the 52 million-pound ($66.6 million) London-based Jupiter Asia Pacific Income Fund, said Taiwan remains its top pick in 2024.”
Konradad said “We don't think the outcome is likely to meaningfully impact the three tech companies that we own… We don't believe that China is likely to invade Taiwan in the next 12 months."
Interestingly, “Goohoon Kwon, senior Asia economist covering South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand at Goldman Sachs, says the market's ‘base case’ scenario appears to be the ruling DPP retaining the presidency but losing its parliamentary majority”.
Think Tank / Policy Space
Chatham House - “Taiwan elections offer no clear answers to China challenge”
This is a brilliant editorial-like article from Ben Bland, Chatham House Asia-Pacific Programme director. The key point:
“Ultimately, none of the presidential candidates has a clear-cut answer for how to sustain Taiwan’s democracy and self-government long term. They are all offering different ways to bide time and keep Beijing at bay”.
And as Dmitri Alperovitch responded to the article on X:
“Delaying Beijing’s attempts to break the status quo over Taiwan (ideally indefinitely) is an answer in and of itself and the core foundation of the US policy for the last 50 years”.
Bland also says:
“Whoever wins the presidency will likely face more pressure from China over the next four-year electoral term. If it is Lai, who Beijing distrusts deeply, that pressure will likely come in the shape of more aggressive military manoeuvres and exercises. If it is Hou or Ko, there will be likely be increased pressure on the Taiwanese government to engage politically with Beijing on terms that could undermine Taiwan’s autonomy”.
Podcasts
Drum Tower by the Economist - “Taiwan goes to the polls”
In this Drum Tower podcast which is in front of the paywall, Alice Su speaks with David Rennie about her experience speaking with voters at DPP, KMT and TPP rallies here in Taiwan on the campaign trail.
You could say the best international Taiwan reporting gives a sense of Taiwan society, reporting from the perspective of Taiwanese and how they see it, and the worst is coverage which treats Taiwan as a pawn between the US and China, with no input from Taiwanese.
In between these two extremes is the Economist, which reports from the Taiwanese perspective, but where the China factor is the single lens through which the Economist tells Taiwan’s story.
The Taiwan that is conveyed by the Economist, a society where all is about China, geopolitics, and the fate of international order, is one I don’t recognise.
Image credit: Facebook/ 民主進步黨
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